The Trucking Market in the Second Half of 2026: What Mid-Size Carriers Should Be Watching

Updated October 14, 2026. First published in July and rewritten with data through the second week of October.

The rate recovery that began this spring has changed character since July. Spot linehaul is still about a third above last year, contract rates have caught up to spot, tender rejections are running above 14%, and September's headline rate increase came almost entirely from a record diesel price. For a mid-size carrier, the decisions that matter now are different from the ones that mattered in the summer: what to commit for the rest of Q4 and for 2027, how to read a rate offer when fuel is moving, and how clean your driver roster is while federal enforcement keeps removing capacity.

This article covers what the latest data shows, where the forecasts for 2027 agree and disagree, and what is worth doing before the year ends.

September's Rate Increase Was Mostly Fuel

DAT's September report, released October 13, is the clearest example of why an all-in rate can mislead. Dry van spot rates including fuel averaged $3.01 per mile, up 12 cents from August and 96 cents from a year earlier. Excluding fuel, the same rate fell 2 cents to $2.17. DAT's estimate of the fuel portion rose 14 cents to a record 84 cents per mile, which is more than the entire increase. Flatbed followed the same pattern, with the all-in spot rate up 7 cents while linehaul dropped 10 cents to $2.60. Reefer was the exception, with linehaul up 9 cents to $2.70.

Diesel explains the gap. The EIA's national average reached a record $6.529 per gallon the week of September 21 and stood at $6.199 on October 5, still roughly $2.70 above the January low. The EIA's October outlook expects retail diesel to stay above $6 this month and then decline gradually, although distillate inventories below the five-year average keep prices above $4 through 2027.

None of this means linehaul is weak. DAT's most recent weekly dry van report puts national spot linehaul near $2.26 per mile, about 35% above a year ago and roughly 23% above the nine-year seasonal average. The point is narrower. When a broker or shipper quotes an all-in rate, a growing share of it is fuel the carrier has to buy, not margin. Compare offers on linehaul and on the fuel surcharge schedule as two separate numbers. Surcharges reset off a lagging benchmark, so during a fast run-up a carrier absorbs part of each increase before the surcharge catches up, and how fuel surcharges lag a diesel spike and what that costs per truck walks through how to audit that.

Contract Rates Have Caught Up, and Tender Rejections Are Climbing

Through the summer, the story for carriers was that spot sat above contract, which meant freight on older contracts was underpriced. That gap has largely closed. In DAT's September data, dry van contract averaged $3.24 all-in against $3.01 for spot, and $2.40 against $2.17 excluding fuel. Reefer and flatbed contract rates both set monthly records. FreightWaves' SONAR data shows the same movement from another angle: its seasonally adjusted contract index now sits above the highs of the freight recession and is still closing on spot.

Tender rejections show where the pricing power sits. They held at 13.45% on September 10 and were reported above 14% by early October. NTG Freight projects 20% by December as seasonal demand builds against a smaller truck base, though that is one broker's forecast, not a settled outcome. FreightWaves' Craig Fuller is explicit that peak season has not been confirmed, with the tender index still short of the readings that would confirm it, and that the market is tight because of supply, not because demand is surging. Where the freight moves also matters as much as how much of it there is, and how tariffs are reshaping which freight lanes matter most right now covers that shift.

For a carrier, this changes the question. In July it was whether contract freight was underpriced. Now it is what to commit. Shippers who spent the year exposed to spot are moving freight to contract, and Transportation Insight's guidance to shippers is that mid-October is the practical deadline for Q4 truckload bids, with a seasonally softer Q1 offering better terms afterward. That advice cuts the other way for carriers: a softer Q1 favors shippers, so a carrier with open capacity has more negotiating room in the next few weeks than it is likely to have in January. A carrier whose contracts were priced before the summer should be asking for a rate reopener now. A carrier that has been rejecting tenders to chase spot loads should know what that costs, because shipper relationships are built on acceptance, and what the freight recession taught fleets about cost pressure is a reminder of who has the upper hand when the cycle turns. How your mix of broker and direct shipper freight affects your exposure determines how much of your revenue can respond to any of this.

The Supply Shock Is Regulatory, and It Reaches Your Driver Roster

The capacity behind these numbers is leaving through enforcement more than through weak demand. FMCSA's non-domiciled CDL rule, published February 13, took effect March 16. Only holders of H-2A, H-2B and E-2 status can now receive, renew or upgrade that kind of license, and FMCSA estimates that up to 194,000 current holders, about 97% of the total, will eventually lose eligibility. Drivers with a valid license and valid work authorization can keep driving until the license expires, so the removal runs over several years instead of arriving at once, although some states have revoked licenses immediately. English language proficiency enforcement has put more than 27,000 drivers out of service, according to Commercial Carrier Journal's August reporting, and federal authorities have removed nearly 10,000 noncompliant training providers from the registry and shut down 550 fraudulent schools. Schneider's CEO told CCJ he believes about half of the noncompliant capacity is still in the market and will exit through next year.

Two consequences follow for a mid-size carrier. The first is recruiting. A shrinking pool pushes pay and sign-on costs up, and how to structure driver pay when recruiting gets harder covers how to respond without breaking your cost structure.

The second is less discussed and more urgent. If any driver on your roster holds a non-domiciled license, that driver's renewal eligibility decides when you lose them, and the date is knowable today. Pull each driver's license type, expiration date and documented work authorization, and build a renewal calendar for the next two years. Check English proficiency documentation in the driver qualification files at the same time. A legal challenge to the rule was filed in the D.C. Circuit around the time it took effect, so confirm its current status with counsel before making personnel decisions on it.

Brokers are reading the same files from the other side. The Supreme Court's unanimous May 14 decision in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II held that state negligent-hiring claims against freight brokers are not preempted by federal law, which means a broker can be sued over how it selected a carrier. The Court did not define what reasonable vetting looks like, so brokers have every reason to ask for more documentation, and carriers that make their vetting easy to document are the ones that keep getting loads. What to put in a carrier capabilities packet covers the documentation, and how CSA scores and safety records feed insurance pricing covers the underwriting side, where the same records are read for a different reason.

Equipment: The Pre-Buy Is Over and the 2027 Price Is Still Unsettled

FTR reports that the EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy is finished and that surcharge-free model year 2026 build slots are effectively sold out. September Class 8 orders were mixed. FTR counted 21,300 units, up 3% from a year earlier, while ACT Research counted 18,700, down 9.5%, and ACT attributed the weakness to fleets waiting on an EPA rule that has not been finalized and to manufacturers not yet fully opening their 2027 order boards. Both firms describe underlying replacement demand as solid.

The price of waiting is still an estimate. FTR puts a fleet pass-through at $6,000 to $7,000 if manufacturers use nonconformance penalties, against $8,000 to $12,000 for a fully compliant engine. A carrier that did not pre-buy is now pricing 2027-spec equipment against an unfinished rule, and the leasing versus buying math under the 2027 emissions rule shows how to run that comparison without guessing at a single number. With diesel above $6 and equipment costs uncertain, cash timing matters too, and building a 13-week cash flow view is the practical way to see whether a purchase fits.

What 2027 Looks Like: A High Level With Slower Growth

Two forecasts published in the past six weeks agree on shape and differ on size. C.H. Robinson's September 3 update expects what shippers pay per mile to rise about 10% for dry van in 2027, 11% for reefer and 10% for flatbed, after 2026 increases of roughly 30%, 31% and 28%, with the largest 2027 gains in the first half because early-2026 comparisons are soft. Arrive Logistics expects spot rates to crest in January 2027 around summer 2026 levels and then ease modestly, with year-over-year growth falling to roughly flat in the second half of 2027. Its dry van contract forecast peaks at 22% growth in November 2026 and flattens by the fourth quarter of 2027.

Both say rates are unlikely to fall back to prior-cycle lows, pointing to structural supply limits and higher operating costs. Read together, the level stays high while the growth rate fades. A 2027 contract priced this quarter is priced close to the peak, which argues for attention to term length and reopener language and against assuming that this year's percentage gains repeat. How quarterly demand patterns should shape fleet planning is the companion for sequencing those decisions around a typically soft first quarter.

LTL is repricing as well. NTG Freight reports that ArcBest took a 5.9% general rate increase in June, Saia 7.1% in July, and Old Dominion 4.9% effective October 5. Shippers moving freight out of truckload are not finding relief there, which confirms that the whole ground freight market is resetting, not just truckload.

What to Do Before the Year Ends

Separate fuel from linehaul in every rate comparison. Ask each broker and shipper for the linehaul rate and the surcharge schedule as two numbers, and check how often the surcharge resets and which benchmark it follows. A rate that looks 12 cents better than last month may be a fuel pass-through and nothing else.

Decide Q4 and 2027 commitments while the bid window is open. If your contracts were priced before the summer, request a reopener. If you have been running heavy on spot, decide deliberately how much freight to move onto contract and for how long, given that forecasts put the peak around the turn of the year. Consider shipper interest in dedicated capacity too: Ryder's mid-2026 outlook expects dedicated transportation to keep growing as shippers look for reliability, which favors carriers that can show a documented safety program and consistent service.

Audit your driver roster and build the renewal calendar described above, including license type, expiration and work authorization, and keep the documentation current in each driver qualification file.

Recalculate your cost per mile at current diesel and driver pay. A rate that cleared your floor in the spring may not clear it now, and your fleet's cost per mile baseline is the reference for that check.

Set a range for 2027 equipment costs instead of a single figure, and revisit it when the EPA finalizes its rule.

For carriers weighing what operational and financial support helps with these decisions, fleet services and support for mid-size carriers is the place to start that conversation.

Sources

1. DAT Freight & Analytics. Truckload rates rise in September as diesel tops $6 a gallon. Press release, October 13, 2026. financialcontent.com
2. DAT Freight & Analytics. Dry Van Report: Rates climb as load posts fall and capacity tightens. October 2026. dat.com
3. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Short-Term Energy Outlook. October 6, 2026. eia.gov
4. SMC³. EIA Weekly Regional Diesel Fuel Prices. Weeks through October 6, 2026. smc3.com
5. FreightWaves. Tender Rejections at 13.5%: Tight Market or Fade? September 2026. freightwaves.com
6. FreightWaves. Diesel Prices & Freight Trends: What's Driving the Market in Q4? October 13, 2026. freightwaves.com
7. Transportation Insight. Transportation Industry Trends: September 28 - October 2, 2026. transportationinsight.com
8. NTG Freight. Weekly Freight Trends: October 5-9, 2026. ntgfreight.com
9. Commercial Carrier Journal. Is the truck driver shortage back? August 12, 2026. ccjdigital.com
10. Federal Register. Restoring Integrity to the Issuance of Non-Domiciled Commercial Drivers Licenses (CDL). February 13, 2026. federalregister.gov
11. Jackson Lewis. FMCSA New Rule Cracks Down on Non-Citizen Commercial Driver's Licenses, Creating Carrier Burdens. jacksonlewis.com
12. C.H. Robinson. North America Truckload Freight Market Update. September 3, 2026. chrobinson.com
13. Arrive Logistics. 2027 Truckload Freight Forecast. arrivelogistics.com
14. FTR. FTR reports preliminary North American Class 8 net orders for September at 21,300 units. October 2026. ajot.com
15. ACT Research via Transport Topics. September Class 8 truck orders lose pace on EPA uncertainty. October 2026. ttnews.com
16. Ryder System, Inc. 2026 Trucking Industry Trends and Outlook. ryder.com
17. Supreme Court of the United States. Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC, No. 24-1238. Decided May 14, 2026. supremecourt.gov
18. SCOTUSblog. Court rules freight brokers can face negligent hiring suits under state law. May 15, 2026. scotusblog.com
19. CarrierBook. The Supreme Court Just Made Carrier Vetting Your Legal Defense. May 16, 2026. carrierbook.com
20. Millennials Trucking. Trucking Fuel Discounts: Three Ways Enterprise Fleets Overpay at the Pump. millennialstrucking.com
21. Millennials Trucking. Leasing vs. Buying Fleet Trucks: Why the Old Math No Longer Works in 2026. millennialstrucking.com

Millennials Trucking helps mid-size and enterprise fleet operators with market conditions, compliance, and operational strategy. Reach out to discuss your fleet's position heading into the end of 2026.